A respected and intelligent newsletter writer just wrote:
“It is finally being realized or sensed that we are now just starting into a dark period —the biggest depression since 1740. At worst we are entering a new dark age. Lots of scared people are suddenly seeking advice, buying gold, thinking of moving, changing banks, etc It will soon be impossible to buy gold for lack of supply in the US, Canada, Australia! Comex will shut! In Europe, and Asia, premiums on gold and silver will rise to 30%, then 40%. Inflation will wipe out all savings. The stock market will decline by 90-98%. AU –Price will; go to 1000, then 2000 then beyond. You’d better stock up on gold.”
Gramps asks (rhetorically of course)
Is this Good Advice? Is everybody who doesn’t put all his cash savings into gold going down the tubes?
NOT THIS TIME: Disaster is not to be the fate of any of my clients, nor of you, dear reader.
Use this Blog any way you want. Just pass it on with attribution to www.FreedomPrivacyWealth.com
“If this is not the time to retrench and lay low, then what should I do?”
This is the right time to think positive & to take advantage of the growing number of opportunities – the wrong time to crawl under a rock & hide.
First the “Pep Talk!”
Getting pessimistic & negative in the extreme is what some people did when facing [what turned out to be] the imaginary Y2K.”Crisis. Then, as now, the world was destined to change a little bit –but it didn’t and it won’t stop turning. Factories, infrastructure, homes, buildings, farms, productive facilities? The internet? Active investors and entrepreneurs will continue to exist. Most people will stay employed and will continue to prosper. There always have been bankruptcies & reorganizations, Ponzi Schemes that collapse… However, the people and the vast array of products and services they produce won’t vanish. Goods and services for which there is any demand will be produced. They will be affordable & available as usual.
Look back to the darkest days of an almost destroyed 1945 Berlin. Even after Russians had encircled the city, some Germans enjoyed French Cognac & champagne, American Cigarettes. They could have all the gold & diamonds they cared to purchase. Who were these people? Those who looked around and provided what people wanted, needed and were able to pay for. The black market or free market always produces every conceivable “want.”This may not be “moral,” but it is the fact. Many “survivors” did what in retrospect, was necessary to survive and prosper.
Here is story #1 :
A family we knew [“The Schnitzelbanks”] who owned local factories evacuated Berlin after the first allied air raid on the city. On the third raid, their home in an exclusive Berlin suburb was hit by a bomb, and the sub-tenants were killed. Their factories were partially destroyed. The Schnitzelbanks were then living in their “Gentleman’s Farm” the vacation home– a few hours drive from Berlin. It was chosen and purchased because they had land where they had corn crops, garden vegetables, chickens ducks, cattle, and horses.
Their excess food supplies were traded with city people for rare books, fine wines, liquor, cigars, jewelry, art treasures and other things that Schnitzelbank knew would be of value after the war. The small town near them had neither factories nor military targets. Like the majority of small rural towns, it survived the war unscathed. Some members of the family moved to Switzerland and South America. – This family and many Germans did well during WW2 and made a quick comeback after 1945…
In Russia both during Lenin’s New Economic Policies of 1922-25, and again after Communism, enterprising people including black marketers & politicians became the new Billionaires. Those who merely complained and never looked for opportunities had a hard time.
Should people like you rely on their wits and common sense? Sure! Even more in time of crisis & change. Yacht builders may have to produce fishing boats, motorized surfboards, submarines or military products that sell. Businesses who don’t adapt will be sold off or broken up –and placed in more competent hands. In the face of Socialistic changes, it may pay to adapt and become a Socialist Administrator rather than an enemy of the state. Nevertheless, if moving to a safer and freer country is an option, we always prefer that.
In the USA and Europe, some people will be out of a job for a while. They will get state handouts, unemployment, etc. to mitigate the damage. I don’t see any Americans or for that matter, any Europeans in Welfare states starving! The vast majority of people will continue to have jobs. The vast majority of existing businesses will continue to exist. However, for you or anyone to do more than barely survive, it will be necessary to think like an entrepreneur. Use your head.
Advice that makes sense? When other people are selling out, irrationally, get into that business. Perhaps with a new twist or angle. Put your skills and resources to their highest and best possible use.—There is no “single path.” You must find and operate in the areas of opportunity. Places where you personally have or can quickly gain expertise. Be flexible and change course. If there is too much competition, quit and move on to something else. Be ready to admit you were wrong –too early or too late.
Post your comments, thoughts, related personal experiences, corrections or questions below.